Wanted: Workers for hot jobs in 2020 and beyond. Must be tech-savvy and good with people. Telemarketers and travel agents need not apply.
Imagine it's the year 2026, and you're a full-fledged member of the American workforce. What kind of job do you have? Are you growing human cells in a test tube or working in a nursery school? repairing 3-D holographic TVs or running a restaurant? According to the experts, those are surefire picks.
Laura Marble wants to be a nurse. "I'd like to work in pediatrics, with little kids," says Laura, a sophomore at Spackenkill High School in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. "And there is a great need for nurses. You can move anywhere and get a job."
Computers appeal to Andrew Dolce, a senior at Spackenkill High. "Working with computers involves a lot of math and logic, which I'm good at," he says. "And at the rate that the technology is evolving, I think that's where the jobs of the future will be."
Laura and Andrew have made wise choices. Health care and technology are the two industries that will generate the most job opportunities over the next 15 to 20 years, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Is your dream job in an up-and-coming industry or in one that's likely to fizzle out? Though no one has a crystal ball, forecasters look at today's statistics and trends to predict which jobs will be red hot (or ice cold) by 2020. Here's what they told Career World.
Three Major Trends Shape the Future
A trio of social factors--the aging of the U.S. population, increased use of technology in the workplace, and worldwide competition--will shape the job market over the next two decades.
Boomers bow out. "The aging of the baby boomers will be the biggest trend of the next 10 years," says Roger Moncarz, an economist with the Labor Department's Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections. The numbers tell the story. The 78 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 the so-called baby boom generation-will soon retire from their jobs (if they haven't already). As they leave the workforce, they'll need to be replaced--creating more jobs for younger workers. A large number of those retirees will live to be 80 years old or older, effectively increasing the country's population. More people (senior citizens as welt as a greater number of immigrants) means more products and services need to be produced, generating more jobs. And as the boomers age, they will create a huge need for health-care workers of all kinds--from doctors and nurses to medical technicians and home health aides.
Information becomes more high-tech. Information technology (IT) will continue to have a big influence on jobs in the future. "The pace of technological change in today's economy has never been greater, and it will accelerate further. IT … will only increase its impact in years to come," writes the Hudson Institute, a public-policy think tank, in its report Warkforce 2020: Work and Workers in the 21st Century. Today, many repetitive tasks are done using automated equipment; in the future, machines will take on increasingly sophisticated work. We can see this occurring before our eyes: In just the last few years, for instance, automatic teller machines have replaced many bank tellers, and touch-tone systems have all but done away with human telephone operators. Employees who did those jobs may lose out, but people with the skills to develop and repair the new technology may have even more options than before.
The economy goes global. Put simply, people in other countries are competing with American workers for the same jobs. You may have heard of this practice as outsourcing. More and more of today's office occupations--telemarketing, data entry, technical support, accounting--can be done wherever a personal computer can be hooked up to a phone line. Some companies have begun outsourcing those jobs to countries such as India and the Philippines, where well-educated, English-speaking workers perform the same tasks as their U.S. counterparts for much lower salaries. Last February, a survey of 200 multinational corporations revealed that more than one-third of them are interested in relocating higher-paying research-and-development positions to countries such as China and India, which have both large populations and many well-educated scientists and researchers. "It will take another 15 years for this trend to reach its peak," says Michael Robinson, CEO of CareerPlanner.com. Being aware of which jobs are likely to be outsourced can help you plan your career path. Low-end positions requiring the fewest skills will continue to be vulnerable to outsourcing pressures.
How can you prevent losing a job to someone on the other side of the world? Education is key, especially if you love chemistry and calculus. "If you can handle math and science, go for it. You'll do well," advises Robinson. "There's a huge shortage of math and science majors. Some companies can't hire enough software engineers."
The Future Job Scene
In the boxes throughout this story, Career World has identified the best--and worst--job prospects for the 21st century. But before making any decisions, "brainstorm things you like to do and things you're good at doing," says Laraine Kautz, who advises teens on job opportunities for the Dutchess County (N.Y.) Workforce Investment Board. "People miss out because they don't ask questions. Talk to people you meet in various fields, and opportunities might become apparent to you."
From financial planner to physicist, from engineer to entertainer, your choices are endless.
Which career path beckons to you?
Job Prospects for People With a Bachelor's or Graduate Degree
Love working with people? creating new things? You've got plenty of careers to choose from. Jobs for lawyers, teachers, writers, entertainers, and artists will remain in great demand. Such work requires creative thinking, something machines can't do (at least not yet). Cultural differences make it hard for companies to outsource those jobs to workers overseas.
* doctor, dentist
* nurse
* lawyer
* college professor
* preschool teacher
* journalist
TOP TECH JOBS
Technology is growing at breakneck speed. "With the expansion of the Internet, jobs in information security--protecting network information, preventing identity theft--are likely to increase," says economist Roger Moncarz. Look for jobs for content creators (writing, composing music, or designing graphics for the Web) and for workers to build and repair fiberoptic, cable, and satellite systems.
* network systems analyst
* software engineer
* network administrator
* database administrator
* Webmaster
* systems integrations specialist
SLOW DOWN: JOBS THAT ARE DECLINING
"Farmers and ranchers will have the most decline in jobs," says Roger Moncarz. "Machines are doing everything for them." In the next decade, jobs that connect consumers to products and services will also be on the hit list. The number of insurance salespeople, car dealers, and travel agents will gradually shrink as more people buy their products via the Internet.
* factory worker
* farmer
* fisher
* miner
* stock clerk
* telemarketer
* secretary
HEALTH CARE HEATS UP
No field is growing more than health care. By 2014, there will be 3.6 million new jobs in the health-care field. Opportunities for doctors and dentists will certainly increase, and plenty of other jobs will be available in the medical profession for people without a graduate degree. Health-care support occupations, which include medical technicians, therapists, and aides, will grow by one-third by 2014, adding a whopping 1.2 million jobs.
* nurse
* physician assistant
* physical therapist
* diagnostic sonographer
* dental hygienist
* occupational therapist
* nursing aide
By: Sparling, Polly, Career World, Sep2006
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